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Milei's dollar plans, however, put pressure on the embattled peso currency, which is held in check by strict capital controls. The official exchange rate is near 350 per dollar, but dollars trade well over twice that in popular parallel markets. Milei said in the run-up to the election he wanted to ditch the peso altogether in favour of the dollar. Milei had also heavily criticised China and Brazil in the runup to the elections, two of Argentina's main trading partners. China said on Tuesday it would be a "serious mistake" if Milei opted to cut ties between the two countries.

Persons: dollarization, Javier Milei, Miel, Milei, Morgan Stanley's, Viktor Szabo, Banks, Banks Grupo Supervielle, Marc Jones, Elizabeth Howcroft, Mayur Kamdar, Karin Strohecker, Bernadette Baum, Emelia Organizations: Argentina, Abrdn, U.S ., Banks Grupo, Banco, Banco BBVA Argentina, Grupo Financiero, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, MERV, London, Argentina, U.S, Grupo Financiero Galicia, China, Brazil

☆ Analysis: EUphoria! Poland election surprise spurs investor hope
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Donald Tusk, leader of the largest opposition grouping Civic Coalition (KO), delivers a speech after the exit poll results are announced in Warsaw, Poland, October 15, 2023. As Europe’s sixth-largest economy, a revitalised pro-EU attitude in Poland would be particularly welcome. The 66-year old Tusk and his pro-EU coalition allies may still have to wait weeks or even months though before getting a turn at forming a government. Duda has referred the issue at the heart of that row to a constitutional tribunal in Poland. The central bank though has slashed interest rates at its last two meetings as the election campaign burst into life.

Persons: Donald Tusk, Kacper, Poland's, Daniel Moreno, Mirabaud, PiS, Moreno, Hungary's Viktor Orban, Robert Fico, Tusk, Andrzej Duda, Duda, Viktor Szabo, Fitch, Szabo, Adam Glapinski, PiS ., Simon Quijano, Evans, Libby George, Karin Strohecker, Josie Kao Organizations: Civic Coalition, REUTERS, European Union, Law and Justice, European, EU, Brussels, PiS, Gemcorp, Ukraine, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Warsaw, Poland, Brussels, Europe, EU, Slovakia, Britain, London

[1/2] Shadow of the supporter is pictured during the election convention of Law and Justice (PiS) party, before Sunday's parliamentary elections, in Przysucha, Poland October 9, 2023. "It is the most important election we have this year in Europe," said Viktor Szabo, portfolio manager at asset manager abrdn, adding markets had not priced in scenarios such as a hung parliament or the possibility of an early election. Such a scenario would be a key positive for both the currency and Polish equities, said Anna Zadornova, an economist at UBS. "Ultimately there is a point where you need to yield to the economics and how things are going," said Kaan Nazli, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. ($1 = 0.9461 euros)Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Marc Jones, editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kacper, Viktor Szabo, Szabo, PiS, Daniel Wood, William Blair, Anna Zadornova, Banks, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Adam Glapinski, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Alexander Smith Organizations: Law, Justice, REUTERS, LONDON, abrdn, European Union, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics EU, EU, liberal Civic Coalition, UBS, Poland's, Copley Fund, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Przysucha, Poland, Europe, loggerheads, Brussels, Romania, Hungary

Below are five charts showing what's been moved and/or shaken:1/SHOCK FOR THE STOCKSMSCI's 24-country emerging markets (EM) stocks index (.MSCIEF) is down 6% this month. It is still up for the year, though well below the 13.5% gain this year for MSCI's main global index, which has benefited from a boom in U.S. "mega-cap" stocks. "The markets that have underperformed are the lower-yielding markets like Asia," Mike Arno, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, said. "The market doesn't seem to think that China is a major threat," said Aegon Asset Management's head of EM debt, Jeff Grills. Reuters Graphics5/OUT OF AFRICAThe other big trouble spot has been Africa, where debt markets have seen a sharp pullback.

Persons: Jason Lee, what's, Tayyip Erdogan's, Katherine Marney, Mike Arno, Jeff, Erdogan, Van Eck's, Eric Fine, Viktor Szabo, Szabo, Marc Jones, Rodrigo Campos, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, JPMorgan, Brandywine, FX, HK, EMBI, abrdn, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Africa, MIWD00000PUS, Hungary, America, Brazil, Argentina, Asia, TURKEY, Gabon, Niger, JPMorgan's Africa, London, New York

Turkey's Central Bank headquarters is seen in Ankara, Turkey in this January 24, 2014 file photo. Yet five foreign investors told Reuters that this week's rate hike signalled a new independence among policymakers who are serious about addressing unrelenting pressure on the currency and reining in inflation expectations. "It feels like they are correcting the mistakes they made with their first rate hike decisions," said Viktor Szabo, portfolio manager at abrdn in London. Erdogan, who has fired four central bank chiefs in four years, has said little about the rate hikes. Reuters GraphicsTurkish stock, Eurobond and CDS markets are more attractive targets this year and next, especially after the rate hike, investors and officials say.

Persons: Umit, Erdogan's unorthodoxy, Mehmet Simsek, Goldman Sachs, Tayyip Erdogan's, Viktor Szabo, Ola El, Van Eck, ERDOGAN, Erdogan, Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Cevdet Yilmaz, Blaise Antin, TCW, Kaan, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Spicer, Marc Jones, Jorgelina, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Turkey's Central Bank, Finance, Goldman, Reuters, abrdn, Emerging Markets, Wall Street, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics, CDS, Yeni, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, ANKARA, LONDON, New York, London, Van, Los Angeles, Reuters Graphics Turkish, Yeni Safak, Morocco, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Istanbul, Rosario

Some investors and economic analysts are sceptical that expansion will lead to increased foreign direct investment (FDI) within the bloc. Still, BRICS leaders and other investors touted the increased economic heft from the expansion. Increasing use of national currencies to reduce U.S. dollar dependence was another goal BRICS leaders discussed at the summit in Johannesburg. And with oil producer heavyweights among the newcomers, investors said this would feed speculation that Saudi Arabia might increasingly switch to non-dollar-denominated currencies for oil trade. "The short-term consequences could be seen in oil," said Kaan Nazli, a portfolio manager at asset manager Neuberger Berman in London.

Persons: Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, China Xi, Cyril Ramaphosa, India Narendra Modi, Sergei Lavrov, Viktor Szabo, Li Kexin, Ola El, Chris Turner, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, Hasnain Malik, abrdn's Szabo, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, Rachel Savage, Karin Strohecker, Bansari Mayur, Marc Jones, Jorgelina, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Russia's, Iran, United Arab Emirates, abrdn, Emerging Markets, ING, Reuters Graphics, China, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: China, India, Sandton, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, JOHANNESBURG, LONDON, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Johannesburg, United States, Saudi, London, Van Eck, New York, Copenhagen, Dubai, Bangalore, Rosario

☆ Global markets in H1: Banks vs the machines
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Linking it all has been the relentless rise in interest rates, which was exactly what battered markets in 2022. But just that this time has been different due to an unshakeable view that the end of the cycle is near. A 12%, or $6 trillion, rally in value of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS), (.FTAWORLDSR) although it has been ominously top heavy. Thanks largely to ChatGPT, the AI boom has seen the 'Big Tech' giants enjoy a combined surge of 70%. There have also been around a total of 90 interest rate hikes this year by central banks globally versus just 17 cuts.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Lehman, Trevor Greetham, Gold, Viktor Szabo, Tayyip Erdogan's, haven't, bitcoin, Binance, Milla Savova, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tom Wilson, Rashmi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nikkei, LONDON, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Netflix, Meta, Nvidia, Royal London Asset Management, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan's, Silicon Valley Bank, behemoth, UBS, Treasury, Wall, BlackRock, Commodities, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, El Salvador, Sri, Zambia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Argentina, Japan, Egypt, Nigeria, London

☆ Analysis: Investors lament lost opportunity after unconvincing Turkish rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Foreign investors hoping for a game-changing rate hike from Turkey's newly appointed central bank chief said Thursday's disappointing move to a key rate of just 15% could keep some money on the sidelines. "They lost one perfect chance to demonstrate that they mean business," said Viktor Szabo, emerging markets investment director with Abrdn. But analysts said that after Thursday's decision, Erkan and Simsek would need to work even harder to prove the country had indeed shifted course. Already in the week to June 16, foreign investor holdings of Turkish government bonds had fallen by $16.2 million. "I don't think investors will throw in the towel just yet because I think there is still expectation there is more to come in the coming months," said Kaan Nazli, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

Persons: Murad Sezer, Thursday's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Viktor Szabo, Abrdn, it's, It's, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Eric Fine, Marek Drimal, Simsek, Dan Wood, William Blair, Fitch, Erdogan, Erkan, Kaan, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, VanEck

☆ Analysis: No China, no deal: Bid to break sovereign debt logjams gets weary thumbs up
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Libgeorge Marc Jones | Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - The latest bid by the world's leading institutions and creditors to speed up debt restructurings and get bankrupt countries back on their feet has been greeted by a mix of cautious optimism and weary scepticism by veteran crisis watchers. The somewhat loose framework around sovereign restructurings has seen Beijing seek to influence the traditional rules of engagement in these processes. The Common Framework platform introduced by leading G20 nations in 2020 aimed to bring all creditors, including China, together and streamline negotiations. Anna Ashton, director of China research at Eurasia Group, said this week’s developments underscored the benefits for China to give some ground on some of its concerns. "China is a difficult partner to talk to but we need China at the table for the solution of debt problems, because otherwise we won't see any progress," Lindner said.

☆ No China, no deal: Bid to break sovereign debt logjams gets weary thumbs up
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Libgeorge Marc Jones | Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

JOHANNESBURG, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Nigeria's government bonds fell heavily on Monday after ratings agency Moody's downgraded the West African oil producer late on Friday to Caa1 from B3, saying the government's fiscal and debt position was expected to keep deteriorating. Longer-dated bonds were down the most, with the dollar-denominated 2051 Eurobond falling more than 2.8 cents in the dollar to 68.758 cents according to Tradeweb data . Nigeria's bonds had outperformed other African and emerging market issuers over the last six months, according to JPMorgan. "Immediate default risk is low, assuming no sudden, unexpected events such as another shock or shift in policy direction," Moody's added. Moody's said it expects just the interest payments on Nigeria's debt to take up about half of the government's revenue in the medium term, up from 35% in 2022.

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